Pradejón vs Varea Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Pradejón and 0.92 for Varea, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Pradejón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.07 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pradejón home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Varea away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pradejón to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 31% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Pradejón and 0.92 for Varea, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Pradejón win39%

Draw31%

Varea win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–014.7%
0–013.8%
1–113.5%
0–112.6%
2–07.8%

Recent form

Pradejón

2026-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs La Calzada · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Varea · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Balsamaiso · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Autol · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-12T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Berceo · 1-4 (L)

Varea

2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Agoncillo · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oyonesa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs La Calzada · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pradejón · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcial · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T17:00:00.000Z · Pradejón 0-1 Varea (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
2026-01-03T15:00:00.000Z · Pradejón 0-1 Varea (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
2020-03-01T16:00:00.000Z · Pradejón 0-5 Varea (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
2019-10-13T10:00:00.000Z · Pradejón 0-3 Varea (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Berceo	6	5	0	1	13	15
2	Alfaro	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Calahorra	6	4	0	2	11	12
5	La Calzada	6	4	0	2	1	12
6	Pradejón	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Varea	6	2	4	0	2	10
8	San Marcial	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Agoncillo	6	2	2	2	3	8
10	Anguiano	6	2	2	2	2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Yagüe	6	2	0	4	-6	6
13	Cenicero	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Comillas	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calasancio	6	1	2	3	-9	5
16	Vianés	6	1	1	4	-1	4
17	River Ebro	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	1	0	5	-9	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.