· Analysis updated 13:54 UTC
Prat vs Athletic Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Prat and 1.53 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Athletic Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Prat home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Club away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Athletic Club to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 31% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Prat and 1.53 for Athletic Club, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–17.4%
Recent form
Prat
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs San Rafael · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs San Rafael · 5-1 (W)
- 2025-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlètic Lleida · 0-6 (L)
- 2025-05-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Peralada · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-04-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mollerussa · 0-5 (L)
Athletic Club
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Levante · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa del Rey table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pinatar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 |
| 2 | Prat | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 3 | Anaitasuna | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 4 | Lebrijana | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 5 | Atletico Calatayud | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Alcazar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Hortaleza | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Ribadesella CF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Auriense | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | CD San Jose | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Maracena | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Tavernes | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Güímar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Noja | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Talayuela | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Baztán | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 | Ceuta 6 de Junio | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Tedeón | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
| 19 | San Rafael | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
| 20 | Atlético Melilla | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.