Preston Lions vs Altona Magic Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Preston Lions and 0.85 for Altona Magic, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Preston Lions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Preston Lions win

54.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Preston Lions home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Altona Magic away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Preston Lions to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 25% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Preston Lions and 0.85 for Altona Magic, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Preston Lions win55%

Draw25%

Altona Magic win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.9%
1–111.8%
2–011.0%
2–19.3%
0–08.8%

Recent form

Preston Lions

2026-09-05T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Avondale · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Altona Magic · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-26T09:30:00.000Z · H vs South Melbourne · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Dandenong City · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-19T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne City II · 4-0 (W)

Altona Magic

2026-08-29T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Preston Lions · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-22T05:15:00.000Z · H vs Avondale · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-14T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Dandenong City · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-01T05:15:00.000Z · H vs Sunshine Georgies · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Dandenong Thunder · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-29T05:00:00.000Z · Preston Lions 1-1 Altona Magic (Victoria NPL)
2026-05-16T08:15:00.000Z · Preston Lions 0-1 Altona Magic (Victoria NPL)
2025-05-31T05:15:00.000Z · Preston Lions 2-0 Altona Magic (Victoria NPL)
2025-02-21T09:30:00.000Z · Preston Lions 1-0 Altona Magic (Victoria NPL)

Victoria NPL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	26	16	6	4	32	54
2	Preston Lions	26	15	6	5	22	51
3	Hume City	26	15	4	7	15	49
4	Avondale	26	15	2	9	31	47
5	South Melbourne	26	13	2	11	3	41
6	Heidelberg United	26	11	7	8	8	40
7	Sunshine Georgies	26	9	11	6	1	38
8	Dandenong City	26	10	7	9	4	37
9	St. Albans Saints	26	9	7	10	-7	34
10	Melbourne City II	26	8	6	12	0	30
11	Altona Magic	26	7	7	12	-14	28
12	Bentleigh Greens	26	6	6	14	-24	24
13	Green Gully	26	4	6	16	-29	18
14	Dandenong Thunder	26	4	3	19	-42	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Preston Lions win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.