· Analysis updated 04:57 UTC
Preston North End U21 vs Burnley U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Preston North End U21 and 1.00 for Burnley U21, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Preston North End U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Burnley U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Preston North End U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 29% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Preston North End U21 and 1.00 for Burnley U21, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–08.2%
Recent form
Preston North End U21
- 2026-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn Rovers U21 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-07-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lancaster City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Longridge Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-01-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich Town U21 · 0-3 (L)
Burnley U21
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fulham U21 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves U21 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs West Bromwich Albion U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn Rovers U21 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.