· Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Preston North End U21 vs Fleetwood Town U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Preston North End U21 and 1.00 for Fleetwood Town U21, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Preston North End U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Preston North End U21 win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fleetwood Town U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Preston North End U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Preston North End U21 and 1.00 for Fleetwood Town U21, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.6%
Recent form
Preston North End U21
- 2026-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn Rovers U21 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-07-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lancaster City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Longridge Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-01-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich Town U21 · 0-3 (L)
Fleetwood Town U21
- 2026-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Barnsley U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Wednesday U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough United U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea City U21 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · Preston North End U21 2-1 Fleetwood Town U21 (Premier League Cup)
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Preston North End U21 win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.