Deepdale · Referee Rueben Ricardo, England · Analysis updated 13:09 UTC
Preston vs Bristol City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Preston and 1.38 for Bristol City, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Bristol City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Preston home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bristol City away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Away | 2.46 | 38.0% | 39.5% | 2.53 | +1.5 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.33 | 71.0% | 72.5% | 1.38 | +1.5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.10 | 44.7% | 46.2% | 2.16 | +1.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.90 | 49.3% | 50.6% | 1.98 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.74 | 34.1% | 34.4% | 2.91 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.42 | 65.3% | 65.6% | 1.52 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.53 | 60.6% | 60.5% | 1.65 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.1% | 73.9% | 1.35 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.85 | 50.7% | 49.4% | 2.02 | -1.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.25 | 29.0% | 27.5% | 3.64 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 55.3% | 53.8% | 1.86 | -1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.35 | 27.9% | 26.1% | 3.83 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Preston
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs QPR · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 1-2 (L)
Bristol City
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Charlton · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Watford · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-04T15:00:00.000Z · Preston 2-0 Bristol City (Championship)
- 2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Preston 0-0 Bristol City (Championship)
- 2025-05-03T11:30:00.000Z · Preston 2-2 Bristol City (Championship)
- 2024-11-02T15:00:00.000Z · Preston 1-3 Bristol City (Championship)
- 2024-01-13T15:00:00.000Z · Preston 2-0 Bristol City (Championship)
- 2023-08-05T14:00:00.000Z · Preston 1-1 Bristol City (Championship)
- 2023-02-04T15:00:00.000Z · Preston 1-2 Bristol City (Championship)
- 2022-10-12T18:45:00.000Z · Preston 1-2 Bristol City (Championship)
- 2022-01-29T15:00:00.000Z · Preston 2-2 Bristol City (Championship)
- 2021-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · Preston 0-0 Bristol City (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | QPR | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Southampton | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 8 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Lincoln | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 11 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 20 | Norwich | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 9 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.