Deepdale Stadium · Referee Ben Speedie · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Preston vs Millwall Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Preston and 1.35 for Millwall, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Millwall the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Preston home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Millwall away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 48.2% vs market 44.3%, edge +3.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +3.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.3% | 73.4% | 1.36 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.75 | 33.0% | 33.2% | 3.01 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 26.6% | 3.76 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.25 | 40.3% | 40.2% | 2.49 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 67.1% | 66.8% | 1.50 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.55 | 60.6% | 59.8% | 1.67 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 51.8% | 1.93 | -3.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Preston
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs QPR · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn · 2-1 (W)
Millwall
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Preston · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs West Ham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Middlesbrough · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-28T15:00:00.000Z · Preston 0-2 Millwall (Championship)
- 2025-11-08T12:30:00.000Z · Preston 1-1 Millwall (Championship)
- 2025-02-18T19:45:00.000Z · Preston 1-1 Millwall (Championship)
- 2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Preston 1-3 Millwall (Championship)
- 2024-01-27T15:00:00.000Z · Preston 1-1 Millwall (Championship)
- 2023-10-21T11:30:00.000Z · Preston 1-1 Millwall (Championship)
- 2023-04-15T14:00:00.000Z · Preston 0-2 Millwall (Championship)
- 2022-11-12T15:00:00.000Z · Preston 2-4 Millwall (Championship)
- 2022-04-15T14:00:00.000Z · Preston 1-1 Millwall (Championship)
- 2022-02-01T19:45:00.000Z · Preston 0-0 Millwall (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.