Dimotiko Stadio Preveza · Analysis updated 17:21 UTC
Preveza vs Asteras Kalirachis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Preveza and 1.65 for Asteras Kalirachis, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Asteras Kalirachis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Asteras Kalirachis win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Preveza home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Asteras Kalirachis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 19% / 24% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Preveza and 1.65 for Asteras Kalirachis, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 46%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–211.2%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Preveza
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panagriniakos · 2-0 (W)
- 2021-06-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amvrakikos Loutrou · 0-0 (D)
- 2021-06-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Acheron Kanalaki · 0-1 (L)
- 2021-05-30T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Kalirachis · 2-2 (D)
- 2021-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Panagriniakos · 4-1 (W)
Asteras Kalirachis
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Asteras Kalirachis win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.