· Analysis updated 19:50 UTC
Preveza vs Lefkimmi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.36 expected goals for Preveza and 0.68 for Lefkimmi, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Preveza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Preveza win
74.8% probability
Expected goals
2.36 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Preveza home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Preveza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 16% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.36 goals for Preveza and 0.68 for Lefkimmi, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 45%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.3%
- 1–011.3%
- 3–010.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–17.7%
Recent form
Preveza
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panagriniakos · 2-0 (W)
- 2021-06-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amvrakikos Loutrou · 0-0 (D)
- 2021-06-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Acheron Kanalaki · 0-1 (L)
- 2021-05-30T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Kalirachis · 2-2 (D)
- 2021-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Panagriniakos · 4-1 (W)
Lefkimmi
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panegialios | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Atromitos Patras | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 10 |
| 3 | Preveza | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Panachaiki FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Plataria | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Tilikratis | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Pallixouriakos | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Aris Filiates | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Agios Matthaios | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 10 | Lefkimmi | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 | Panagriniakos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 12 | Levante | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Preveza win, at 74.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.