· Analysis updated 23:46 UTC
Preveza vs Levante Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.12 expected goals for Preveza and 0.54 for Levante, a combined total of 3.66. That distribution gives Preveza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 87%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 87% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Preveza win
87.1% probability
Expected goals
3.12 – 0.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Preveza home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Preveza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 87%, against 87% / 9% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.12 goals for Preveza and 0.54 for Levante, a combined 3.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 40%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
13%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–013.0%
- 2–012.5%
- 4–010.2%
- 1–08.0%
- 3–17.0%
Recent form
Preveza
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panagriniakos · 2-0 (W)
- 2021-06-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amvrakikos Loutrou · 0-0 (D)
- 2021-06-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Acheron Kanalaki · 0-1 (L)
- 2021-05-30T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Kalirachis · 2-2 (D)
- 2021-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Panagriniakos · 4-1 (W)
Levante
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panegialios | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Atromitos Patras | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 10 |
| 3 | Preveza | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Panachaiki FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Plataria | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Tilikratis | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Pallixouriakos | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Aris Filiates | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Agios Matthaios | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 10 | Lefkimmi | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 | Panagriniakos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 12 | Levante | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Preveza win, at 87.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.