· Analysis updated 14:37 UTC
Preveza vs Panagriniakos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Preveza and 0.78 for Panagriniakos, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Preveza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Preveza win
75.3% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Preveza home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Panagriniakos away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Preveza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 15% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.53 goals for Preveza and 0.78 for Panagriniakos, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.7%
- 3–09.9%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–17.7%
Recent form
Preveza
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panagriniakos · 2-0 (W)
- 2021-06-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amvrakikos Loutrou · 0-0 (D)
- 2021-06-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Acheron Kanalaki · 0-1 (L)
- 2021-05-30T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Kalirachis · 2-2 (D)
- 2021-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Panagriniakos · 4-1 (W)
Panagriniakos
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panachaiki FC · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Preveza · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pamisos Messini · 1-2 (L)
- 2023-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trikala · 6-3 (W)
- 2023-04-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Asteras Petriti · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atromitos Patras | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 |
| 2 | Preveza | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Panegialios | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Plataria | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Panachaiki FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 6 | Aris Filiates | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Tilikratis | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Agios Matthaios | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Pallixouriakos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 10 | Lefkimmi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 11 | Panagriniakos | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
| 12 | Levante | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Preveza win, at 75.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.