· Analysis updated 07:52 UTC
Priehrada vs Baník Prievidza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.52 expected goals for Priehrada and 1.47 for Baník Prievidza, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives Priehrada the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Baník Prievidza away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Priehrada to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 24% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.52 goals for Priehrada and 1.47 for Baník Prievidza, a combined 2.99 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.7%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Priehrada
- 2026-08-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Prievidza · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Družstevník Jacovce · 2-4 (L)
- 2025-07-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Uhrovec · 0-0 (D)
Baník Prievidza
- 2026-10-25T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Veľké Ludince · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Myjava · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Púchov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunajská Lužná · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Komárno II · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.