· Analysis updated 16:15 UTC
Primavera SP vs Oeste Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.69 expected goals for Primavera SP and 0.65 for Oeste, a combined total of 3.34. That distribution gives Primavera SP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Primavera SP win
80.4% probability
Expected goals
2.69 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Primavera SP home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Oeste away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.8%
- 3–011.5%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 4–07.7%
Recent form
Primavera SP
- 2026-09-19T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Noroeste · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Noroeste · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs São Caetano · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs São Caetano · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Paulista · 1-2 (L)
Oeste
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Primavera SP · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paulista · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Paulista · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Primavera SP · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · Primavera SP 2-1 Oeste (Copa Paulista)
- 2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · Primavera SP 2-0 Oeste (Copa Paulista)
- 2025-02-08T18:00:00.000Z · Primavera SP 1-0 Oeste (Paulista - A2)
- 2024-03-06T22:30:00.000Z · Primavera SP 1-0 Oeste (Paulista - A2)
- 2023-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · Primavera SP 1-3 Oeste (Copa Paulista)
- 2023-06-30T22:00:00.000Z · Primavera SP 2-1 Oeste (Copa Paulista)
- 2023-01-25T18:00:00.000Z · Primavera SP 3-2 Oeste (Paulista - A2)
- 2022-02-05T22:00:00.000Z · Primavera SP 0-0 Oeste (Paulista - A2)
Copa Paulista table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | São José EC | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | União São João | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | Primavera SP | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 18 |
| 4 | Grêmio Prudente | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Linense | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 6 | EC São Bernardo | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Noroeste | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 9 | Bandeirante SP | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Comercial | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Santo André | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Paulista | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | XV de Piracicaba | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Marília | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Oeste | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | São Caetano | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Primavera SP win, at 80.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.