· Analysis updated 17:42 UTC
Primavera SP vs Paulista Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Primavera SP and 0.90 for Paulista, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Primavera SP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Primavera SP win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Primavera SP home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paulista away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Primavera SP
- 2026-09-19T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Noroeste · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Noroeste · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs São Caetano · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs São Caetano · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Paulista · 1-2 (L)
Paulista
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grêmio Prudente · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Prudente · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Primavera SP · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oeste · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · Primavera SP 1-2 Paulista (Copa Paulista)
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · Primavera SP 0-1 Paulista (Copa Paulista)
- 2025-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · Primavera SP 2-0 Paulista (Copa Paulista)
- 2025-08-23T22:00:00.000Z · Primavera SP 0-1 Paulista (Copa Paulista)
- 2025-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · Primavera SP 2-0 Paulista (Copa Paulista)
- 2025-06-28T18:00:00.000Z · Primavera SP 1-0 Paulista (Copa Paulista)
- 2020-03-07T19:00:00.000Z · Primavera SP 0-1 Paulista (Paulista - A3)
Copa Paulista table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | São José EC | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | União São João | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | Primavera SP | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 18 |
| 4 | Grêmio Prudente | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Linense | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 6 | EC São Bernardo | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Noroeste | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 9 | Bandeirante SP | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Comercial | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Santo André | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Paulista | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | XV de Piracicaba | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Marília | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Oeste | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | São Caetano | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Primavera SP win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.