· Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Primorje vs Krka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Primorje and 1.04 for Krka, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Primorje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Primorje win
48.1% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Primorje home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Krka away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Primorje to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 26% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Primorje and 1.04 for Krka, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–18.1%
Recent form
Primorje
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Triglav · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dren Vrhnika · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Bilje · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilirija · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Krka · 3-2 (W)
Krka
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Ljubljana · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudar · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bistrica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-01T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Segesta Sisak · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Beltinci | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Triglav | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 4 | Rudar | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Bilje | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 6 | Jesenice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Bistrica | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 | Slovan Ljubljana | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 | Ilirija | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Dekani | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Dren Vrhnika | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Primorje | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Krško | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 9 |
| 14 | Dravinja | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 15 | Krka | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 16 | Brežice | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Primorje win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.