Prishtina Bern vs Stade Payerne Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.80 expected goals for Prishtina Bern and 1.38 for Stade Payerne, a combined total of 5.18. That distribution gives Prishtina Bern the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Prishtina Bern win

80.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.80 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Prishtina Bern home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Stade Payerne away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Prishtina Bern to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 11% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.80 goals for Prishtina Bern and 1.38 for Stade Payerne, a combined 5.18 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Prishtina Bern win80%

Draw11%

Stade Payerne win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

89%

Double chance X2

20%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals87%

Over 3.5 goals74%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

3–17.1%
4–16.8%
2–15.6%
3–05.2%
5–15.1%

Recent form

Prishtina Bern

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Coffrane · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Payerne · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Chênois · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Servette II · 6-0 (W)
2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Vevey Sports · 3-2 (W)

Stade Payerne

2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chênois · 5-2 (W)
2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Vevey Sports · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Portalban / Gletterens · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sion II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lancy · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Azzurri Bienne	11	9	0	2	16	27
2	Prishtina Bern	11	8	2	1	22	26
3	Servette II	11	6	4	1	3	22
4	Lausanne Sport II	11	4	5	2	7	17
5	Naters	11	5	2	4	-6	17
6	Sion II	11	4	4	3	1	16
7	Portalban / Gletterens	10	4	2	4	5	14
8	Monthey	10	3	5	2	2	14
9	Chênois	11	4	2	5	-1	14
10	Lancy	11	4	1	6	-2	13
11	La Chaux-de-Fonds	11	4	1	6	-15	13
12	Echallens	11	3	3	5	-10	12
13	Meyrin	11	3	2	6	2	11
14	Stade Payerne	11	3	2	6	-7	11
15	Coffrane	10	1	4	5	-4	7
16	Vevey Sports	10	1	1	8	-13	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Prishtina Bern win, at 80.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.

A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.