· Analysis updated 13:53 UTC
Prishtina e Re vs KF Lepenci Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Prishtina e Re and 1.14 for KF Lepenci, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Prishtina e Re the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Prishtina e Re win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Prishtina e Re home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
KF Lepenci away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Prishtina e Re to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Prishtina e Re and 1.14 for KF Lepenci, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Prishtina e Re
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ramiz Sadiku · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 2 Korriku · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vëllaznimi · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Istogu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vjosa · 1-4 (L)
KF Lepenci
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tefik Canga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rilindja 1974 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kika · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trepça Mitrovicë · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Ferizaj · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Prishtina e Re win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.