· Analysis updated 15:14 UTC
Prishtina vs Drenica Skënderaj Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.11 expected goals for Prishtina and 0.88 for Drenica Skënderaj, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives Prishtina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Prishtina win
65.8% probability
Expected goals
2.11 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Prishtina home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Drenica Skënderaj away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.2%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–07.9%
Recent form
Prishtina
- 2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Malisheva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukagjini · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gjilani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Feronikeli · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Drenica Skënderaj · 4-1 (W)
Drenica Skënderaj
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Llapi · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vushtrria · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Drita · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Ballkani · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · Prishtina 4-1 Drenica Skënderaj (Superliga)
- 2026-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · Prishtina 1-2 Drenica Skënderaj (Superliga)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · Prishtina 2-2 Drenica Skënderaj (Superliga)
- 2025-12-20T12:00:00.000Z · Prishtina 2-1 Drenica Skënderaj (Superliga)
- 2025-10-19T11:00:00.000Z · Prishtina 4-3 Drenica Skënderaj (Superliga)
- 2023-05-20T13:00:00.000Z · Prishtina 4-1 Drenica Skënderaj (Superliga)
- 2023-03-18T12:00:00.000Z · Prishtina 1-0 Drenica Skënderaj (Superliga)
- 2022-11-12T00:00:00.000Z · Prishtina 0-1 Drenica Skënderaj (Superliga)
- 2022-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · Prishtina 1-2 Drenica Skënderaj (Superliga)
- 2022-04-24T12:00:00.000Z · Prishtina 1-1 Drenica Skënderaj (Superliga)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prishtina | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Malisheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 16 |
| 3 | Dukagjini | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Drita | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Gjilani | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 9 | Llapi | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Prishtina win, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.