· Analysis updated 20:18 UTC
Prison Leopards vs NAPSA Stars Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Prison Leopards and 0.95 for NAPSA Stars, a combined total of 1.97. That distribution gives Prison Leopards the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Prison Leopards home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
NAPSA Stars away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Prison Leopards to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 31% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Prison Leopards and 0.95 for NAPSA Stars, a combined 1.97 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 0–014.0%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.3%
- 2–07.2%
Recent form
Prison Leopards
- 2026-09-12T07:00:00.000Z · H vs NAPSA Stars · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nkwazi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Green Buffaloes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kansanshi Dynamos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Man Utd Zambia Academy · 0-2 (L)
NAPSA Stars
- 2026-09-12T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Prison Leopards · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zanaco · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mutondo Stars · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Konkola Blades · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zanaco · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.