· Analysis updated 20:33 UTC
Prisons XI vs TAFIC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Prisons XI and 1.18 for TAFIC, a combined total of 2.02. That distribution gives TAFIC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
74.1% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Prisons XI home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
TAFIC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TAFIC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 26% / 30% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Prisons XI and 1.18 for TAFIC, a combined 2.02 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.7%
- 0–013.3%
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–29.3%
Recent form
Prisons XI
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sua Flamingoes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs BDF XI · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gaborone United · 1-2 (L)
- 2023-06-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sua Flamingoes · 0-6 (L)
- 2023-05-31T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Security Systems · 0-4 (L)
TAFIC
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Extension Gunners · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Matebele · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Centre Chiefs · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Orapa United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tonota · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gaborone United | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Tonota | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Sua Flamingoes | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Centre Chiefs | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Orapa United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Extension Gunners | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | TAFIC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Police XI | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Galaxy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Nico United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Township Rollers | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Enesia | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Matebele | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | BDF XI | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Prisons XI | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Morupule Wanderers | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 74.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.