· Analysis updated 16:57 UTC
Pro Palazzolo vs Piacenza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Pro Palazzolo and 1.47 for Piacenza, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Piacenza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Piacenza win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pro Palazzolo home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Piacenza away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Piacenza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 24% / 26% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Pro Palazzolo and 1.47 for Piacenza, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.4%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–09.1%
Recent form
Pro Palazzolo
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Caldiero Terme · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brusaporto · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Scanzorosciate · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nibbiano & Valtidone · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Fiorenzuola · 1-0 (W)
Piacenza
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Calepina · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Virtus Verona · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tritium · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lentigione · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Chievo | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Leon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Caldiero Terme | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Piacenza | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Villa Valle | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Pro Palazzolo | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Milan II | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Brusaporto | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Virtus Verona | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Real Calepina | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Scanzorosciate | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Club Milano | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Pavonese | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Rovato Vertovese | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Fiorenzuola | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | Tritium | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Piacenza win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.