· Analysis updated 16:41 UTC
Pro Patria vs Imperia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Pro Patria and 1.07 for Imperia, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Pro Patria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pro Patria win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pro Patria home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Imperia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pro Patria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Pro Patria and 1.07 for Imperia, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–16.3%
Recent form
Pro Patria
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Città di Varese · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Varesina · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Solbiatese · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Arconatese · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crema · 2-0 (W)
Imperia
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Biellese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lascaris · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Alessandria · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fezzanese · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asti · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pro Patria win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.