Stadio Ernesto Breda · Analysis updated 00:13 UTC
Pro Sesto vs Tuttocuoio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Pro Sesto and 0.80 for Tuttocuoio, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Pro Sesto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pro Sesto win
58.8% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pro Sesto home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tuttocuoio away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pro Sesto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 24% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Pro Sesto and 0.80 for Tuttocuoio, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Pro Sesto
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oltrepò · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Crema · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Pontedera · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Città di Varese · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lentigione · 2-3 (L)
Tuttocuoio
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trevigliese · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pro Sesto · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sant'Angelo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lentigione · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresso · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · Pro Sesto 2-0 Tuttocuoio (Serie D - Girone D)
- 2025-12-14T13:30:00.000Z · Pro Sesto 3-0 Tuttocuoio (Serie D - Girone D)
Serie D - Girone D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 24 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Castellanzese | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Lentigione | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Pro Sesto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | USD Casatese | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Città di Varese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 8 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Sant'Angelo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Solbiatese | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Correggese | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Pavia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 13 | Crema | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Varesina | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Coriano | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Oltrepò | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Arconatese | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 3 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pro Sesto win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.