Stadio Silvio Piola · Analysis updated 23:28 UTC
PRO Vercelli vs Lecco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for PRO Vercelli and 1.00 for Lecco, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Lecco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.2% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PRO Vercelli home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lecco away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–013.9%
- 0–113.9%
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–26.9%
Recent form
PRO Vercelli
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Carpi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Giana Erminio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Trento · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Alcione · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Treviso · 1-2 (L)
Lecco
- 2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Brescia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cittadella · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Pergolettese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Desenzano Calvina · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Giana Erminio · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-08T13:30:00.000Z · PRO Vercelli 2-0 Lecco (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2025-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · PRO Vercelli 0-1 Lecco (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2025-02-09T16:30:00.000Z · PRO Vercelli 1-2 Lecco (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2024-09-28T18:45:00.000Z · PRO Vercelli 3-2 Lecco (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2023-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · PRO Vercelli 0-2 Lecco (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-04-22T15:30:00.000Z · PRO Vercelli 0-0 Lecco (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2022-12-17T13:30:00.000Z · PRO Vercelli 1-1 Lecco (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2022-01-19T17:00:00.000Z · PRO Vercelli 0-0 Lecco (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2021-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · PRO Vercelli 1-0 Lecco (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2021-04-21T13:00:00.000Z · PRO Vercelli 1-3 Lecco (Serie C - Girone A)
Serie C - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Ospitaletto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Trento | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Treviso | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Albinoleffe | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Alcione | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Desenzano Calvina | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Novara | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | PRO Vercelli | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Lecco | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Lumezzane | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Pergolettese | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Athletic Carpi | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Folgore Caratese | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Juventus U23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 20 | Renate | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.