· Analysis updated 08:00 UTC
Probiy Horodenka vs Yarud Mariupol' Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Probiy Horodenka and 2.03 for Yarud Mariupol', a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Yarud Mariupol' the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yarud Mariupol' win
58.2% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Probiy Horodenka home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yarud Mariupol' away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yarud Mariupol' to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 21% / 21% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Probiy Horodenka and 2.03 for Yarud Mariupol', a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 0–28.8%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–36.7%
Recent form
Probiy Horodenka
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kulykiv · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Kyiv · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yarud Mariupol' · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Oleksandria · 1-1 (D)
Yarud Mariupol'
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs UCSA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleksandria · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Polissya II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Probiy Horodenka · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | SK Poltava | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Yarud Mariupol' | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Kulykiv | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 21 |
| 7 | Nyva Ternopil | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 9 | Inhulets | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 10 | Prykarpattia | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Metal Kharkiv | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | UCSA | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -20 | 9 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yarud Mariupol' win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.