· Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Progres Niederkorn vs AS Jeunesse Esch Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for Progres Niederkorn and 0.88 for AS Jeunesse Esch, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Progres Niederkorn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Progres Niederkorn win
69.6% probability
Expected goals
2.32 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Progres Niederkorn home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
AS Jeunesse Esch away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Progres Niederkorn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 18% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for Progres Niederkorn and 0.88 for AS Jeunesse Esch, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.5%
- 3–08.5%
- 1–18.3%
Recent form
Progres Niederkorn
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Hostert · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kopstal 33 · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiltz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Rumelange · 3-0 (W)
AS Jeunesse Esch
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bastendorf · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs US Hostert · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiltz · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Rumelange · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 24 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | Progres Niederkorn | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 19 |
| 5 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 7 | Atert Bissen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | US Hostert | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | F91 Dudelange | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 | Victoria Rosport | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 13 | US Rumelange | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 6 |
| 14 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -31 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Progres Niederkorn win, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.