· Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
Progres Niederkorn vs Excelsior Virton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Progres Niederkorn and 2.48 for Excelsior Virton, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Excelsior Virton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Excelsior Virton win
62.0% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 2.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Progres Niederkorn home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Excelsior Virton away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Excelsior Virton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 20% / 18% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Progres Niederkorn and 2.48 for Excelsior Virton, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.0%
- 1–37.4%
- 1–17.3%
- 0–26.7%
- 2–26.1%
Recent form
Progres Niederkorn
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Hostert · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kopstal 33 · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiltz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Rumelange · 3-0 (W)
Excelsior Virton
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Hasselt · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oostkamp · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokeren-Temse · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs KRC Genk II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Francs Borains · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Excelsior Virton win, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.