Progres Niederkorn vs UN Kaerjeng 97 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Progres Niederkorn and 1.63 for UN Kaerjeng 97, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Progres Niederkorn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

61.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Progres Niederkorn home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
UN Kaerjeng 97 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Progres Niederkorn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 23% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Progres Niederkorn and 1.63 for UN Kaerjeng 97, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Progres Niederkorn win38%

Draw23%

UN Kaerjeng 97 win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–110.2%
1–28.3%
2–18.3%
2–26.8%
0–16.3%

Recent form

Progres Niederkorn

2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Hostert · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kopstal 33 · 7-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiltz · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Rumelange · 3-0 (W)

UN Kaerjeng 97

2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Syra Mensdorf · 9-1 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs F91 Dudelange · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Rosport · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Differdange 03 · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swift Hesperange · 6-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	11	10	1	0	19	31
2	FC Differdange 03	11	10	0	1	23	30
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	11	8	0	3	3	24
4	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	11	6	4	1	19	22
5	Atert Bissen	11	7	1	3	12	22
6	UN Kaerjeng 97	11	7	0	4	11	21
7	Progres Niederkorn	11	6	1	4	7	19
8	Résidence Walferdange	11	5	1	5	-3	16
9	F91 Dudelange	11	4	1	6	-1	13
10	AS Jeunesse Esch	11	4	1	6	-2	13
11	Victoria Rosport	11	3	2	6	-5	11
12	US Hostert	11	3	2	6	-5	11
13	Etzella Ettelbruck	11	2	2	7	-10	8
14	US Rumelange	11	2	2	7	-16	8
15	Wiltz	11	1	2	8	-13	5
16	Swift Hesperange	11	0	0	11	-39

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.