Progres Niederkorn vs UNA Strassen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Progres Niederkorn and 1.02 for UNA Strassen, a combined total of 1.86. That distribution gives UNA Strassen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

71.2% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.83 – 1.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Progres Niederkorn home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
UNA Strassen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UNA Strassen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 29% / 32% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Progres Niederkorn and 1.02 for UNA Strassen, a combined 1.86 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Progres Niederkorn win29%

Draw32%

UNA Strassen win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals55%

Over 2.5 goals28%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

0–116.0%
0–015.6%
1–113.3%
1–013.0%
0–28.2%

Recent form

Progres Niederkorn

2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Hostert · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kopstal 33 · 7-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiltz · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Rumelange · 3-0 (W)

UNA Strassen

2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs US Esch · 8-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs US Rumelange · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Mondorf-les-bains · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Résidence Walferdange · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atert Bissen · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	9	9	0	0	17	27
2	FC Differdange 03	9	8	0	1	20	24
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	9	7	0	2	6	21
4	Progres Niederkorn	9	6	1	2	10	19
5	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	9	5	3	1	13	18
6	UN Kaerjeng 97	9	6	0	3	11	18
7	Atert Bissen	9	5	1	3	7	16
8	Résidence Walferdange	9	5	0	4	0	15
9	US Hostert	9	3	2	4	1	11
10	F91 Dudelange	9	3	1	5	-5	10
11	Victoria Rosport	9	2	2	5	-6	8
12	AS Jeunesse Esch	9	2	1	6	-6	7
13	US Rumelange	9	2	0	7	-16	6
14	Etzella Ettelbruck	9	1	2	6	-11	5
15	Wiltz	9	1	1	7	-10	4
16	Swift Hesperange	9	0	0	9	-31

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.