· Analysis updated 10:51 UTC
Progresso vs Scandicci Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.76 expected goals for Progresso and 1.90 for Scandicci, a combined total of 2.67. That distribution gives Scandicci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Scandicci win
64.4% probability
Expected goals
0.76 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Progresso home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Scandicci away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Scandicci to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 14% / 21% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.76 goals for Progresso and 1.90 for Scandicci, a combined 2.67 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.2%
- 0–212.6%
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–38.0%
Recent form
Progresso
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ternana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Grassina · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Robur Siena · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rondinella · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Montevarchi Calcio · 0-2 (L)
Scandicci
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs San Donato Tavarnelle · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Terranuova Traiana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sasso Marconi Zola · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ternana · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prato | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Gavorrano | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Robur Siena | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Tau Altopascio | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | Seravezza | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Ternana | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Scandicci | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Lucchese | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | Terranuova Traiana | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Montevarchi Calcio | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Flaminia | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Mezzolara | 9 | 1 | 7 | 1 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Rondinella | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Sasso Marconi Zola | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Grassina | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Progresso | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Scandicci win, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.