· Analysis updated 08:44 UTC
Progresso vs Seravezza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.62 expected goals for Progresso and 2.09 for Seravezza, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Seravezza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Seravezza win
71.7% probability
Expected goals
0.62 – 2.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Progresso home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Seravezza away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Seravezza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 10% / 19% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.62 goals for Progresso and 2.09 for Seravezza, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
28%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–214.5%
- 0–113.9%
- 0–310.1%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–18.6%
Recent form
Progresso
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Montevarchi Calcio · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Seravezza · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucchese · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Scandicci · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tau Altopascio · 1-2 (L)
Seravezza
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flaminia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lucchese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Robur Siena · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Terranuova Traiana · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresso · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prato | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Gavorrano | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Seravezza | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
| 4 | Lucchese | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Robur Siena | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Tau Altopascio | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Ternana | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Scandicci | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | Terranuova Traiana | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Flaminia | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Montevarchi Calcio | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Mezzolara | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Rondinella | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Sasso Marconi Zola | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Grassina | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Progresso | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
| 18 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Seravezza win, at 71.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.