· Analysis updated 17:59 UTC
Progresul Fundulea vs Axiopolis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Progresul Fundulea and 1.72 for Axiopolis, a combined total of 4.02. That distribution gives Progresul Fundulea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Progresul Fundulea win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Progresul Fundulea home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Axiopolis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 1–17.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–16.2%
- 1–26.1%
Recent form
Progresul Fundulea
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Băneasa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Axiopolis · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Unirea Braniştea · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Agricola Borcea · 2-4 (L)
Axiopolis
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresul Fundulea · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Agricola Borcea · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Oţelul II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunarea Calarasi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Înainte Modelu · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Progresul Fundulea 3-1 Axiopolis (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2025-11-15T12:00:00.000Z · Progresul Fundulea 2-1 Axiopolis (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2025-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · Progresul Fundulea 1-0 Axiopolis (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2024-11-30T12:00:00.000Z · Progresul Fundulea 4-0 Axiopolis (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Progresul Fundulea 1-0 Axiopolis (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2024-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · Progresul Fundulea 1-3 Axiopolis (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2024-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Progresul Fundulea 2-3 Axiopolis (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2023-10-28T12:00:00.000Z · Progresul Fundulea 2-1 Axiopolis (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2023-08-26T16:00:00.000Z · Progresul Fundulea 1-0 Axiopolis (Liga III - Serie 3)
Liga III - Serie 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flacăra Moreni | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Tunari | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Blejoi | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Berca | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Progresul Draganesti | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 6 | Voința Crevedia | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Plopeni | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 8 | Pucioasa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Urban Titu | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Râmnicu Sărat | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Viitorul Corbeanca | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 12 | Păuleşti | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Progresul Fundulea win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.