· Analysis updated 17:36 UTC
Progresul Mogosoaia vs LPS HD Clinceni Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Progresul Mogosoaia and 1.72 for LPS HD Clinceni, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Progresul Mogosoaia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Progresul Mogosoaia home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
LPS HD Clinceni away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Progresul Mogosoaia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 22% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Progresul Mogosoaia and 1.72 for LPS HD Clinceni, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.4%
Recent form
Progresul Mogosoaia
- 2026-08-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Concordia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Voința Crevedia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs LPS HD Clinceni · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baicoi · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Valenii de Munte · 2-1 (W)
LPS HD Clinceni
- 2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alexandria · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxigen Bucuresti · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresul Mogosoaia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cetatea · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Bucureşti II · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.