Stadionul Progresul Spartac · Analysis updated 14:46 UTC
Progresul Spartac vs Concordia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.37 expected goals for Progresul Spartac and 1.64 for Concordia, a combined total of 4.01. That distribution gives Progresul Spartac the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Progresul Spartac win
54.0% probability
Expected goals
2.37 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Progresul Spartac home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Concordia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Progresul Spartac to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 20% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.37 goals for Progresul Spartac and 1.64 for Concordia, a combined 4.01 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–25.8%
Recent form
Progresul Spartac
- 2026-08-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs CIL Blaj · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Metaloglobus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolintin Vale · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Fundulea · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Axi Adunații-Copăceni · 8-0 (W)
Concordia
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Metalul Buzău · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Dinamo București · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Afumati · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresul Spartac · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Metaloglobus · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Progresul Spartac win, at 54.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.