· Analysis updated 12:43 UTC
Progresul Spartac vs FCSB II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.24 expected goals for Progresul Spartac and 1.38 for FCSB II, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Progresul Spartac the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Progresul Spartac win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
2.24 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Progresul Spartac home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FCSB II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Progresul Spartac to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 20% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.24 goals for Progresul Spartac and 1.38 for FCSB II, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–06.7%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
Progresul Spartac
- 2026-08-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs CIL Blaj · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Metaloglobus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolintin Vale · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Fundulea · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Axi Adunații-Copăceni · 8-0 (W)
FCSB II
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Mogosoaia · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Omega Sport · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresul Spartac · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alexandria · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omega Sport | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Alexandria | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | LPS HD Clinceni | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Dinamo Bucureşti II | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 6 | Progresul Mogosoaia | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 7 | Axi Adunații-Copăceni | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 8 | Cetatea | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
| 9 | Oxigen Bucuresti | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Voluntari II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 11 | FCSB II | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 12 | Progresul Spartac | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Progresul Spartac win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.