· Analysis updated 05:08 UTC
Prospect United vs Hurstville FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Prospect United and 1.35 for Hurstville FC, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Prospect United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Prospect United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hurstville FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Prospect United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 26% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Prospect United and 1.35 for Hurstville FC, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–08.9%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Prospect United
- 2026-09-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Parramatta Eagles · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Parramatta Eagles · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-28T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hurstville FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Bankstown City Lions · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-15T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Rydalmere Lions · 3-0 (W)
Hurstville FC
- 2026-08-08T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Bankstown City Lions · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Northern Tigers · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Macarthur Rams · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dulwich Hill · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Hakoah Sydney City · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
New South Wales NPL 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blacktown Spartans | 30 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 43 | 69 |
| 2 | Northern Tigers | 30 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 59 |
| 3 | Bankstown City Lions | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 56 |
| 4 | Canterbury Bankstown | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 51 |
| 5 | Hills Brumbies | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 49 |
| 6 | Macarthur Rams | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 48 |
| 7 | Hakoah Sydney City | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 43 |
| 8 | Rydalmere Lions | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 41 |
| 9 | Bulls Academy | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 38 |
| 10 | Inter Lions | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -15 | 35 |
| 11 | Hurstville FC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -13 | 33 |
| 12 | Central Coast II | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | -21 | 31 |
| 13 | Dulwich Hill | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | -18 | 30 |
| 14 | Newcastle Jets II | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | -18 | 29 |
| 15 | Prospect United | 30 | 4 | 14 | 12 | -19 | 26 |
| 16 | Mt Druitt Town | 30 | 6 | 5 | 19 | -34 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.