MCS Rukh · Analysis updated 11:25 UTC
Prykarpattia vs Metal Kharkiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Prykarpattia and 0.55 for Metal Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Prykarpattia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Prykarpattia win
61.9% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Prykarpattia home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Metal Kharkiv away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.0%
- 2–014.7%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Prykarpattia
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Poltava · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Chernihiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Metal Kharkiv · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Inhulets · 1-2 (L)
Metal Kharkiv
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Poltava · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Inhulets · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs UCSA · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T11:45:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-03T11:00:00.000Z · Prykarpattia 0-0 Metal Kharkiv (Persha Liga)
- 2025-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · Prykarpattia 2-2 Metal Kharkiv (Persha Liga)
- 2024-11-23T10:00:00.000Z · Prykarpattia 1-2 Metal Kharkiv (Persha Liga)
- 2024-09-28T12:30:00.000Z · Prykarpattia 1-2 Metal Kharkiv (Persha Liga)
- 2023-11-10T10:30:00.000Z · Prykarpattia 1-2 Metal Kharkiv (Persha Liga)
- 2023-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · Prykarpattia 1-0 Metal Kharkiv (Persha Liga)
- 2021-11-13T15:45:00.000Z · Prykarpattia 0-4 Metal Kharkiv (Persha Liga)
- 2021-08-07T15:30:00.000Z · Prykarpattia 1-4 Metal Kharkiv (Persha Liga)
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | SK Poltava | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Yarud Mariupol' | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Kulykiv | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Prykarpattia | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | Nyva Ternopil | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Metal Kharkiv | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Inhulets | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 12 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | UCSA | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -20 | 9 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Prykarpattia win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.