PSBS Biak Numfor vs Arema FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for PSBS Biak Numfor and 2.15 for Arema FC, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Arema FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Arema FC win

60.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.13 – 2.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

PSBS Biak Numfor home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arema FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arema FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 19% / 20% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for PSBS Biak Numfor and 2.15 for Arema FC, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

PSBS Biak Numfor win19%

Draw20%

Arema FC win61%

Double chance 1X

39%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–29.8%
1–19.1%
0–28.7%
0–18.1%
1–37.0%

Recent form

PSBS Biak Numfor

2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persipura Jayapura · 1-6 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tornado Pekanbaru · 0-6 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs RANS Nusantara · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persela Lamongan · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persis Solo · 0-7 (L)

Arema FC

2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persija · 1-5 (L)
2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Garudayaksa · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bhayangkara FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persik Kediri · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persija	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Dewa United	7	4	2	1	2	14
3	Bali United	7	4	1	2	12	13
4	Persepam Madura Utd	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Persib Bandung	7	4	1	2	3	13
6	Persita	6	3	3	0	3	12
7	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	3	10
8	Persik Kediri	6	3	1	2	3	10
9	Arema FC	7	2	3	2	2	9
10	Persebaya Surabaya	6	2	3	1	1	9
11	PSM Makassar	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Java United	7	2	3	2	0	7
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Garudayaksa	7	1	2	4	-7	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	1	1	4	-2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	1	2	4	-9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	0	2	5	-8	2
18	Persijap	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Arema FC win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.