PSBS Biak Numfor vs Java United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for PSBS Biak Numfor and 2.60 for Java United, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Java United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Java United win

60.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 2.60

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

PSBS Biak Numfor home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Java United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Java United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 21% / 18% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for PSBS Biak Numfor and 2.60 for Java United, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

PSBS Biak Numfor win21%

Draw18%

Java United win61%

Double chance 1X

39%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–28.3%
1–37.2%
1–16.4%
2–26.4%
2–35.5%

Recent form

PSBS Biak Numfor

2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persipura Jayapura · 1-6 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tornado Pekanbaru · 0-6 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs RANS Nusantara · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persela Lamongan · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persis Solo · 0-7 (L)

Java United

2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Pusamania Borneo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persija · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persita · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persija	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Dewa United	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	4	1	1	4	13
4	Bali United	6	4	0	2	12	12
5	Persita	5	3	2	0	3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	2	2	2	-3	8
11	Java United	6	2	2	2	0	6
12	Arema FC	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	1	1	4	-2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	6	1	1	4	-9	2
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	6	0	1	5	-8	1
18	Persijap	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Java United win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.