Mandala Krida Stadium · Referee F. Norsafarov · Analysis updated 17:08 UTC
PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persepam Madura Utd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.86 expected goals for PSIM Yogyakarta and 1.60 for Persepam Madura Utd, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Persepam Madura Utd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Persepam Madura Utd win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
0.86 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PSIM Yogyakarta home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Persepam Madura Utd away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persepam Madura Utd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 20% / 25% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.86 goals for PSIM Yogyakarta and 1.60 for Persepam Madura Utd, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–211.0%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
PSIM Yogyakarta
- 2026-10-24T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bhayangkara FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSM Makassar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persija · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persepam Madura Utd · 1-2 (L)
Persepam Madura Utd
- 2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs PSM Makassar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bhayangkara FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-05T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-29T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Semen Padang · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persija | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Dewa United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Persepam Madura Utd | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Bali United | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 12 |
| 5 | Persita | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Bhayangkara FC | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Persik Kediri | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Persib Bandung | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Persebaya Surabaya | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | PSM Makassar | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Java United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Arema FC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Garudayaksa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Persijap | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Persepam Madura Utd win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.