Mandala Krida Stadium · Analysis updated 17:52 UTC
PSIM Yogyakarta vs Pusamania Borneo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for PSIM Yogyakarta and 1.03 for Pusamania Borneo, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Pusamania Borneo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.3% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PSIM Yogyakarta home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pusamania Borneo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pusamania Borneo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 32% / 31% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for PSIM Yogyakarta and 1.03 for Pusamania Borneo, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.6%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.2%
- 0–27.5%
Recent form
PSIM Yogyakarta
- 2026-10-24T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bhayangkara FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSM Makassar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persija · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persepam Madura Utd · 1-2 (L)
Pusamania Borneo
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Dewa United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persijap · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persija · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Java United · 7-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persija | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Dewa United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Persepam Madura Utd | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Bali United | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 12 |
| 5 | Persita | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Bhayangkara FC | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Persik Kediri | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Persib Bandung | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Persebaya Surabaya | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | PSM Makassar | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Java United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Arema FC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Garudayaksa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Persijap | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.