PSIS Semarang vs Tornado Pekanbaru Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for PSIS Semarang and 1.70 for Tornado Pekanbaru, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Tornado Pekanbaru the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tornado Pekanbaru win

50.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

PSIS Semarang home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tornado Pekanbaru away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tornado Pekanbaru to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 26% / 24% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for PSIS Semarang and 1.70 for Tornado Pekanbaru, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

PSIS Semarang win26%

Draw24%

Tornado Pekanbaru win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.3%
0–19.8%
1–29.6%
0–28.4%
1–06.7%

Recent form

PSIS Semarang

2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Semen Padang · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs PSPS · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-19T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persebaya Surabaya · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-03T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSS Sleman · 0-3 (L)
2026-04-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tornado Pekanbaru · 1-0 (W)

Tornado Pekanbaru

2026-09-18T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persipura Jayapura · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Dejan · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persela Lamongan · 5-0 (W)
2026-04-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSIS Semarang · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-19T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Deltras · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persela Lamongan	4	4	0	0	10	12
2	Deltras	4	4	0	0	9	12
3	PSMS Medan	4	3	1	0	11	10
4	PSPS	4	3	0	1	2	9
5	Persikad Depok FC	4	3	0	1	-1	9
6	Tornado Pekanbaru	4	2	2	0	3	8
7	RANS Nusantara	4	2	1	1	4	7
8	PSIS Semarang	3	2	1	0	2	7
9	Semen Padang	4	2	1	1	2	7
10	PSGC Ciamis	4	2	0	2	0	6
11	Persipura Jayapura	4	1	2	1	1	5
12	Persis Solo	4	1	1	2	3	4
13	Barito Putera	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Dejan	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Sumsel United	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Bekasi City	4	0	1	3	-3	1
17	Persiku Kudus	3	0	1	2	-7	1
18	Persiraja Banda Aceh	4	0	0	4	-4	0
19	Persiba Balikpapan	4	0	0	4	-5	0
20	PSBS Biak Numfor	4	0	0	4	-22	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tornado Pekanbaru win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.