Gelora BJ Habibie · Referee Y. Yamamoto · Analysis updated 10:51 UTC
PSM Makassar vs Persita Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for PSM Makassar and 2.50 for Persita, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Persita the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Persita win
54.3% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PSM Makassar home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Persita away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.5%
- 1–16.2%
- 2–35.7%
Recent form
PSM Makassar
- 2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persita · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Arema FC · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persib Bandung · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Persepam Madura Utd · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persib Bandung · 1-2 (L)
Persita
- 2026-10-25T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persija · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Java United · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · PSM Makassar 2-2 Persita (Liga 1)
- 2026-03-02T13:30:00.000Z · PSM Makassar 2-4 Persita (Liga 1)
- 2025-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · PSM Makassar 1-2 Persita (Liga 1)
- 2025-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · PSM Makassar 1-0 Persita (Liga 1)
- 2024-12-29T08:30:00.000Z · PSM Makassar 1-2 Persita (Liga 1)
- 2024-02-04T08:00:00.000Z · PSM Makassar 4-0 Persita (Liga 1)
- 2023-08-07T08:00:00.000Z · PSM Makassar 1-0 Persita (Liga 1)
- 2023-03-13T08:00:00.000Z · PSM Makassar 0-0 Persita (Liga 1)
- 2022-12-08T08:15:00.000Z · PSM Makassar 3-1 Persita (Liga 1)
- 2022-02-19T13:15:00.000Z · PSM Makassar 0-2 Persita (Liga 1)
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persija | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Dewa United | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Bali United | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 |
| 4 | Persepam Madura Utd | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Persib Bandung | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Persita | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Bhayangkara FC | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Persik Kediri | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Arema FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Persebaya Surabaya | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | PSM Makassar | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Java United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Garudayaksa | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Persijap | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Persita win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.