Stadion Teladan · Analysis updated 15:25 UTC
PSMS Medan vs Port FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for PSMS Medan and 1.71 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Port FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Port FC win
53.9% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PSMS Medan home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Port FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Port FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 22% / 24% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for PSMS Medan and 1.71 for Port FC, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 0–111.3%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
PSMS Medan
- 2026-08-01T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persija · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Persebaya Surabaya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Port FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-02T09:15:00.000Z · A vs Persiraja Banda Aceh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Adhyaksa · 1-1 (D)
Port FC
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pattani · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persib Bandung · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Sukhothai FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Vissel Kobe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Lamphun Warrior · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Piala Presiden table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persib Bandung | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Arema FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | DPMM FC Brunei | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 1 | Persebaya Surabaya | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Persija | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Port FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | PSMS Medan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Port FC win, at 53.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.