Maguwoharjo Stadium · Analysis updated 06:54 UTC
PSS Sleman vs Arema FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.19 expected goals for PSS Sleman and 1.83 for Arema FC, a combined total of 4.02. That distribution gives PSS Sleman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
PSS Sleman win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
2.19 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PSS Sleman home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arema FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates PSS Sleman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 20% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.19 goals for PSS Sleman and 1.83 for Arema FC, a combined 4.02 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.9%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–17.2%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–15.8%
Recent form
PSS Sleman
- 2026-10-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSM Makassar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Dewa United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persepam Madura Utd · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bali United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 2-2 (D)
Arema FC
- 2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Garudayaksa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bhayangkara FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persik Kediri · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-04T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persija | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Dewa United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Persepam Madura Utd | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Bali United | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 12 |
| 5 | Persita | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Bhayangkara FC | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Persik Kediri | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Persib Bandung | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Persebaya Surabaya | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | PSM Makassar | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Java United | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Arema FC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Garudayaksa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
| 17 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
| 18 | Persijap | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is PSS Sleman win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.