Philips Stadion · Referee M. Vos · Analysis updated 15:03 UTC
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Eindhoven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.95 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives PSV Eindhoven the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
PSV Eindhoven win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PSV Eindhoven home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Eindhoven away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates PSV Eindhoven to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 20% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.95 for FC Eindhoven, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.4%
- 1–26.2%
- 3–15.6%
Recent form
PSV Eindhoven
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-1 (D)
FC Eindhoven
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Den Bosch · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MVV · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong AZ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Beveren · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is PSV Eindhoven win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.