Philips Stadion · Referee Joey Kooij · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.96 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.09 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives PSV Eindhoven the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
PSV Eindhoven win
75.1% probability
Expected goals
2.96 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PSV Eindhoven home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heerenveen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–07.6%
- 3–07.5%
- 4–16.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 3.00 (model 37.3% vs market 31.2%, edge +6.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 3.00 | 31.2% | 37.3% | 2.68 | +6.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.90 | 24.4% | 24.8% | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 8.50 | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.17 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.22 | 75.1% | 75.1% | 1.33 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.07 | 89.0% | 89.0% | 1.12 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 6.50 | 14.1% | 13.9% | 7.19 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.10 | 86.6% | 86.0% | 1.16 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.36 | 68.8% | 62.7% | 1.59 | -6.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
PSV Eindhoven
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 3-1 (W)
Heerenveen
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-21T17:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2026-02-04T20:00:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Heerenveen (KNVB Beker)
- 2025-12-06T15:30:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 2-0 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2025-03-08T19:00:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2024-12-14T17:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 0-1 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2024-04-25T16:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 8-0 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2023-12-07T17:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 2-0 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2023-05-21T12:30:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 3-3 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2022-10-09T14:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 1-0 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
- 2022-02-20T15:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is PSV Eindhoven win, at 75.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.