PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.00 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives PSV Eindhoven the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

PSV Eindhoven win

65.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.25 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

PSV Eindhoven home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PEC Zwolle away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

PSV Eindhoven win66%

Draw19%

PEC Zwolle win16%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–09.8%
2–19.8%
1–08.7%
1–18.7%
3–07.4%

Recent form

PSV Eindhoven

2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-1 (D)

PEC Zwolle

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Groningen · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-23T19:00:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 6-1 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2025-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 4-0 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2025-01-18T15:30:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 1-3 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2024-10-26T16:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 6-0 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2024-02-24T19:00:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 7-1 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2023-11-12T11:15:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 4-0 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2022-05-15T12:30:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 2-1 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2021-10-16T19:00:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 3-1 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2021-05-13T12:30:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 4-2 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2020-10-18T14:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 3-0 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	8	6	2	0	20	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	16	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	10	19
4	Twente	8	5	2	1	8	17
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	12	15
6	Groningen	8	4	2	2	6	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	4	2	2	-1	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	8	2	5	1	2	11
9	Excelsior	8	3	2	3	2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Cambuur	8	2	2	4	-8	8
13	Utrecht	8	2	2	4	-11	8
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	-7	6
15	Telstar	8	1	3	4	-7	6
16	PEC Zwolle	8	1	1	6	-15	4
17	ADO Den Haag	8	0	3	5	-10	3
18	Willem II	8	0	2	6	-16	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is PSV Eindhoven win, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.