Philips Stadion · Analysis updated 22:28 UTC
PSV Eindhoven vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 2.00 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives VfB Stuttgart the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
VfB Stuttgart win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PSV Eindhoven home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VfB Stuttgart away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfB Stuttgart to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 18% / 21% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 2.00 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.0%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–36.6%
Recent form
PSV Eindhoven
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 3-1 (W)
VfB Stuttgart
- 2026-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 4 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 6 | Como | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Sabah FA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | AS Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 22 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 34 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is VfB Stuttgart win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.