PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.15 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.95 for Willem II, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives PSV Eindhoven the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

PSV Eindhoven win

80.2% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.15 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

PSV Eindhoven home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Willem II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

PSV Eindhoven win80%

Draw12%

Willem II win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

20%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals58%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

3–08.6%
2–08.2%
3–18.2%
2–17.8%
4–06.8%

Recent form

PSV Eindhoven

2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-1 (D)

Willem II

2026-10-11T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2025-02-08T17:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Willem II (Eredivisie)
2024-09-28T14:30:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 2-0 Willem II (Eredivisie)
2022-05-01T12:30:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 4-2 Willem II (Eredivisie)
2021-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 1-2 Willem II (Eredivisie)
2021-05-09T14:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 2-0 Willem II (Eredivisie)
2020-11-08T19:00:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 3-0 Willem II (Eredivisie)
2020-08-21T16:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Willem II (Friendlies Clubs)
2020-02-08T18:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 3-0 Willem II (Eredivisie)
2019-11-10T13:30:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 1-2 Willem II (Eredivisie)
2019-04-25T18:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 3-0 Willem II (Eredivisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	8	6	2	0	20	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	16	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	10	19
4	Twente	8	5	2	1	8	17
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	12	15
6	Groningen	8	4	2	2	6	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	4	2	2	-1	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	8	2	5	1	2	11
9	Excelsior	8	3	2	3	2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Cambuur	8	2	2	4	-8	8
13	Utrecht	8	2	2	4	-11	8
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	-7	6
15	Telstar	8	1	3	4	-7	6
16	PEC Zwolle	8	1	1	6	-15	4
17	ADO Den Haag	8	0	3	5	-10	3
18	Willem II	8	0	2	6	-16	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is PSV Eindhoven win, at 80.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.